Visão Geral do Mercado

Yen slips and gold softens as focus turns to JOLTS and China PMI 

Equipa ADFX

Market Recap 

XAUUSD 
XAUUSD opened at 4081.47 and printed its session high of 4086.51 at 01:00, then slid into the afternoon to a low of 4000.20 at 17:15 before settling at 4016.26. The close marked a decline of 65.21 points, or -1.598% on the day, with an intraday range of 86.31 points, about 2.11% of the open. Price action traversed multiple $10 handles as it moved from the 4080s toward the 4000 area, briefly testing the round-number level with the trough just 0.20 above it. The session closed near the lower end of the day’s span, around 18.6% up from the low, indicating limited retracement off the late-day trough by the close. Structurally, the high was set at the outset and the low arrived late in the session, leaving the settlement in the lower quartile of the range and well below the opening print. On higher timeframes, the market finished beneath the D1 20-day simple moving average at 4200.58 and also below the H1 moving averages, with the H1 EMA21 at 4035.30 and the H1 SMA20 at 4040.07. The dip to 4000.20 registered fresh 5-day and 10-day lows. Overall, the session framed a broad move from the early high toward the 4000 figure, where a marginal bounce into the close left XAUUSD below near-term intraday averages and some distance under the daily 20-day mean. 

USDJPY 
USDJPY added 0.18 (0.11%) over the session, closing at 161.88 after opening at 161.70. Price traversed a 0.29 range, equal to 0.18% of the open, with the day’s low of 161.68 set at 00:37 and the high of 161.97 printed late at 21:59. The close was near the top of the range, finishing 0.09 below the high, after the low was established early and subsequent trade leaned progressively higher into late hours. Activity stayed within the 161 handle throughout, while the late-session high came just under the 162.00 round level; the pair settled 0.12 shy of 162.00 and 1.88 above the nearest 10-handle at 160.00. The session high marked fresh 5‑day and 10‑day highs. On the higher timeframes, the daily upper Bollinger band sits at 162.46, leaving both the intraday high and the close below that reference. Momentum on H4 showed RSI14 at 70.42. By the close, the market had preserved most intraday gains, with price action concentrated in the upper portion of the day’s 29‑pip span after an initial dip that was not revisited. The intraday structure featured a tight consolidation around the mid‑161s for much of the period before the late push toward 162.00, without a break of the session floor set shortly after the open. No tick‑volume metrics were available, and no daily ATR comparison was provided. 

AUDUSD 
AUDUSD edged higher on the session, closing at 0.68882 for a gain of 0.00022 or 0.032%. Price opened at 0.6886 and set the day’s high early at 0.6897 at 01:03, remaining under the 0.6900 figure, before slipping to the session low of 0.68801 at 04:03, a brief test of the 0.6880 handle. It then climbed into the close, finishing just below the midpoint of the day’s range and slightly above the open. The intraday span was 0.00169, equal to 0.25% of the open, outlining contained movement between 0.6880 and 0.6900. The close left the pair in the middle of the session’s distribution, with the early high preceding a mid-session low and a late recovery. On higher timeframes, spot held beneath the H4 EMA21 at 0.69075 throughout, while the D1 SMA20 at 0.70151 sat well above current levels. Momentum gauges were restrained, with H4 MACD near 0.00 and H1 RSI14 at 34.9. From a broader context, price remained below the recent 5-day high at 0.70025, with intraday attempts capped ahead of the 0.6900 round level and downside contained around 0.6880. Overall, the pair ended the session marginally higher, mid-range, after an early uptick, a subsequent dip to the low at 04:03, and a modest late-session lift into the close. 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

Overnight, Japan’s retail sales surprised to the upside, rising 1.9 percent month over month versus 1.3 percent previously and far above the -1.2 percent forecast, offering a stronger read on household demand to close the month. Ahead, the data calendar centers on Asia and North America: at 04:00, China’s Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 49.4 after 50.0 previously; a sub-50 reading denotes contraction and can color risk sentiment. Canada follows at 15:30 with GDP month over month, expected at 0.0 percent after -0.1 percent, a print that will be parsed for momentum into mid-year. The US releases JOLTS Job Openings at 17:00, with vacancies seen at 6.82 versus 7.62 prior, a gauge closely watched for labor market tightness and potential read-through to wage pressures. No major central bank meetings are scheduled over this window, though headlines could still sway markets ahead of the US labor data later in the week. As JOLTS has at times surprised and elicited outsized moves in rates and FX, a brief bout of volatility around the 17:00 release is possible. All times are server time; China Manufacturing PMI 04:00 (prior 50.0, forecast 49.4), Canada GDP month over month 15:30 (prior -0.1 percent, forecast 0.0 percent), and US JOLTS 17:00 (prior 7.62, forecast 6.82). 

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